Even without EVs making much of a dent on demand, consumption of autogas peaked in the U.S. at 143 billion gallons in 2018. It declined to 137 billion gallons in 2023, and experts expect that the 2018 levels will become the all-time peak.
It's decreasing, since MPG has steadily improved over the the decades. Older cars get replaced with much more efficient ones. So, even with more vehicles on the road, the total conusmption of gas isn't increasing like it's been steadily doing for a century.
And now EVs are starting to scale out beyond early-adopters, that they have mostly appealed to, over the past few year. So, in addition to the MPG efficiency gains of modern cars, over the next few years, EVs will also start to produce a meaningful reduction in how much gas is purchased for passenger cars.
Source: NREL
The number of pure EVs (not including hybrid PHEVs) in the U.S. will increase from a little over 4 million at the end of 2024, to 30 million in 2030, as the ranges & charging speeds of EVs increase, and the price premium of EVs vs. ICE goes narrows.
FWIW, 2023 was the first year in which a million EV were sold. It's likely that EV sales will reach 5 million per year by 2030.
Each million EVs on the road replaces the need for 600 million gallons of gas, which is 0.4% of the 137 billion gallons of auto gas purchased each year, in the U.S. A relatively small reduction.
But, things get real, when there are 30 million EVs on the road, as there will be by 2030. With 30 million EVs on the road, 18 billion less gallons of gas are needed for passenger cars. That's around 13% of the total gallons of auto gas that will be purchased in 2030. 13% isn't a smaller, rounding-error like number.
Things get real, when there is a 13% reduction in the amount of autogas that's needed in the richest country in world. It removes the need to ship, transport, refine, fill and burn a lot of fuel. It's a big freaking deal. A large enough reduction to capture the attention of producers in the gulf states, and across the board-rooms of big oil companies.
And, while 13% is a large number, in the 2030's, the range of EVs will commonly surpass 500 miles on a single-charge, and charging will become much more convenient. Chargers will be much easier to locate and able to deliver 200 miles of range in 20 minutes. This result in EVs appeal skyrocketing across the market, winning over mainstream buyers who don't want to make the sacrifices that today's EV buyers need to make.
Expect, that by 2040, there will be 55 Million EVs in the US and the reduction in the gas required for passenger cars will lead to a 30%+ decrease in the amount of motor oil that's purchased, compared to current levels.
Restrictive policy, can (attempt) to slow some of the growth, but better technology always wins in the long-term, as you can't hold back technological advancement and efficiencies (technologies get so much cheaper over the long-term).